Anuj Agrawal

"Checking In" On Location-Based Marketing

So wouldn't it be cool if you could walk by a Starbucks and get a mobile coupon?  Haha, just kidding.  If you've been in the mobile space for a while, you know that has been the promise of location-based applications for nearly a decade.  While mobile coupons are starting to appear, they aren't quite making the splash that has been promised since data started being delivered to the phone.  But leave it to social networking to get things cranking around location-based services that are actually compelling, consumer friendly, and have real potential to be a serious marketing tool for businesses.  

With social networking becoming mainstream over the last few years, location-based services are gathering the most traction through social networking tools like Foursquare, Gowalla, and MyTown.  My early experiences with these services provide a sneak peek into how they have the potential to transform the loyalty program landscape.  Before, other than standard reward cards almost every establishment offers, McDonald's Monopoly game was one of the more inventive and fun loyalty programs.  But with restaurants beginning to offer discounts, no wait times, and even free vacations (Moby Dick's in the DC area had this running recently) for their Foursquare "Mayor", people are again incented to visit establishments to gather badges and mayorships to show off to their friends.  I must say I myself have been caught up in this when I see an establishment offering up freebies to frequent, um, checker-inners.  

iPhone 4: Thoughts On The New Video Features

I will save the general iPhone 4 reviews to the thousands of other outlets covering the device (although I am pretty impressed with the elegant feeling hardware and updated iOS4 functionality.  The updated iPhone 4 form factor reminds me a bit of the XM SkyFi3 from a few years ago, but with a much more premium and sleeker feel to it).  For this post, I wanted to point out a couple thoughts as it relates to the video functionality within the new device:

1. FaceTime - wow, what a compelling app, but its use will be severely limited out of the gate.  Actually, there are 2 points to bring up on this, which indicate it will still require time to realize the full utility of FaceTime.

• Wi-Fi Only - Jobs mentioned that they have some work to do with the "carriers".  That's carriers with an "s".  So did he mean U.S. carriers?  Is Verizon or another provider in the mix and determining the features of the current handset, or was he referring to the many international carriers who sell the iPhone around the world?  With AT&T's recently revised data plans, AT&T shouldn't have had a problem with this appliciation being used over its network, thus its interesting that other carriers have forced Apple to make this feature Wi-Fi only.  Of course, this severely limits the places where someone can use this.  I'll pretty much only be using this feature when I'm at home (or maybe while I'm hitting lunch at a Panera, etc.), where I could already use Skype on my computer.

Can The Has-Been Handset Makers RAZR the iPhone?

We all remember how cool the RAZR was when it came out with its super-thin design and “Back in Black” theme song in the commercials. It was the phone that changed consumer expectations on how small a mobile phone could be.  Since then, things have gone downhill for Motorola, while the new 800-pounders are in Silicon Valley redefining how users interact with the web, play games, and socialize with their friends on their pocket sized iPhones and Android devices.

Now it may soon be Nokia’s turn to be the future "has-been" of dominant handset providers as they are steadily losing share to smart phones.  What will they do to protect their turf?  They still have a big lead worldwide as the graphic below shows, but clearly their growth is flattening as people move to Apple and Android based handsets.

The Changing Landscape Of Online Video - What's Next?

With Hulu’s pending launch of their premium service, let’s take a step back and theorize how the video content industry is changing.  It is incredibly hard to get people to start paying for something that was previously free.  While Hulu’s idea is to provide access to older episodes as part of the premium model, they are still asking people to pay to consume video online.  In my view, the only way you can charge for content is to have access to some type of exclusive content that is not available on every other video aggregation site.  Rather than trying to change consumer behavior to pay for online content, the more likely structural change will need to be on the advertising side of the equation, since consumers are already used to seeing ads. 

Right now consumers create value in 2 ways: they pay a cable/satellite TV bill (the access fee), and they view ads. Online, they pay no access fees for video, and they significantly fewer ad spots. So of course more people are moving online, it’s basic consumer behavior!  However, as this deteriorates the industry’s value, the structure of the business will need to change.  Think about the value chain players:  content creators, providers, distributors, and consumers.  Providers ultimately get paid for ads, but those ads need to be seen by people, thus, the newfound power of the cable distributors to command higher fees from the networks.  While there is a shift in consumer usage from the TV to a variety of online devices (PCs, gaming consoles, mobile devices), at some point content creators need to continue to be paid to actually be incented to create the content.  But if people continue to cut their cable cords and too much value is taken out of the traditional distribution model, more expensive or higher volume advertising inventory will need to be created within online video streams.

Kindle In Retail - Finally, But Is Amazon's Choice Off-Target?

With iPad stealing all of Kindle’s well deserved thunder, let’s not forget that it is still the top selling SKU on Amazon.  However, it is clear the quickly evolving e-reader market has forced Amazon to tweak its selling philosophy for the Kindle.  I had always found it hard to believe that consumers would be willing to shell out $300+ (its price for most of its lifetime) for a device that not only is a brand new product category in the industry, but also one that consumers could not demo prior to purchase!  

I get that Amazon isn’t in the business of promoting retail sales, but if they are…were…serious about consumer electronics, they had to have retail distribution, even if only very limited.  While I am happy to finally see them go the retail route, I do find the choice of Target to be somewhat surprising.  When you think of the upscale brand image associated with the Kindle, it seems to clash with it being sold exclusively through Target, no?  My guess is that the primary outlet for this, Best Buy, had already nailed down its e-reader partners for the time being, including their recently announced deal to sell the Nook.  

Social Matchbox DC Spring 2010 - Recap

Earlier this week in DC was the Spring installment of Social Matchbox, an event that brings together promising startups in the community to present their business ideas, seek funding, and gather feedback from a crowd of passionate digital media fans.  It was an impressive roster of presenting companies with a heavy emphasis on consumer facing concepts.  I fully expect at least a few of these companies to get funding.  In particular, here are the ones who stood out:

 

 

Love this concept.  I walk around with CVS, Barnes & Noble, and grocery store loyalty cards in my wallet, and each time I visit these places, I need to empty out my entire wallet to reach them.  CardStar takes the hassle out of managing each card and makes the card available on your phone by re-creating the bar code associated with the card.  The best part is that beyond the simple convenience factor, this allows retailers to push down special, personalized deals to your phone.  This app is going to make my wallet seriously thinner...literally. 

 

Shopflick: Personalizing Online Selling

There is a new service out called Shopflick, that allows online sellers to augment their item with a video ad.  After poking around the site, I find it to be a fresh and entertaining way to engage buyers in the online shopping experience.  Many of us have either bought or sold things on eBay and see the same stock product description and image that everyone else posting the same item has used.  Now, video will be able to provide much more differentiated information on the product and allow a stronger connection to be formed between the buyer and seller.

Shopflick: Get Mini Smart Cars yourself!
See more of ShopflickTV Features on Shopflick!

The Line Between Gaming and Music Companies Is Starting to Blur

It didn't take long for the recently merged Activision and Blizzard Entertainment to make some interesting strategic moves.  They recently announced a plan to launch a new digital music store to compete with iTunes.  Wait, aren't these two companies in the gaming business? 

As we have seen, many of the recent blockbuster game titles have been music-focused.  Rock Band and Dance Dance Revolution have been major hits over the past couple of years.  Activision Blizzard's Guitar Hero is the hottest selling game over the past year and has shown to dramatically affect sales of songs included in the game. For example, the chart below (or in the extended post) shows the impact that the GH3 launch had on digital sales of songs in the game (chart courtesy of Ars Technica).  Not only did song sales make a dramatic leap, that leap continued to grow and sales remained high even weeks after the launch of the game.

HD Movies At Home Shortly After Theatre Release?: Make It Happen FCC!

An interesting battle is going on in the movie industry.  The Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) has recently filed a petition to have the FCC waive its restriction on using selectable output control (SOC).  SOC is used to restrict which output is used to transmit content out of a device. 

The MPAA is advocating for the FCC to remove its waiver of these restrictions in order for theatrical movie releases to be distributed in high-definition to homes prior to their availability on DVD, which is generally 120 days after theatrical release. By removing the waiver, the MPAA can be assured that digital outputs utilizing copy protection would be used to transfer this content to displays, ensuring that illegal copies are not created and distributed before official DVDs hit the market. The MPAA is saying that removing this waiver would only affect content that is distributed prior to DVD release.  After that, there would be no restrictions, similar to what happens now.  Thus, there is little change in what the customer experiences, except that now consumers get to watch new releases at home much earlier than before.

Limiting the Downside: Finding The Best Time To Buy Stock

Over the past couple of weeks, the Dow has taken a nosedive into sub-11,000 territory and is currently trying to fight its way back.  However, this is still way off the highs it set just last October when it hit the 14,000 mark.   Of course, the economic problems will likely keep the market from retouching those lofty levels, but it is safe to say there is probably more upside than downside at this stage of the game.

This is how I try to look at individual stocks.  Upside vs. downside potential.  I have had my fair share of bad buys over the years listening to the so called "experts" on CNBC.  So I set out to educate myself on better understanding optimal times to buy stocks.  Obviously, no one is able to predict which way a stock is headed, so the name of the game for me is to figure out the best time to enter that will maximize the upside/downside ratio.   There are many sites on the Web to learn about the various candlestick patterns representing bullish and bearish signals which can be used to trigger appropriate buy/sell signals.  I often evaluate these charts, but for me, I tend to keep things simple with 2 basic metrics: